The real truth about James Cook

"Hype Trains" are the latest epidemic - diving in deeper to the Bills rookie RB

By Dane Vega

Flavor

What happens when you mix a lackluster running back room, an explosive NFL offense, and fresh rookie talent? You get the recipe for a delectable hype candidate: James Cook. So loosen your belts, because we’re about to feast on some Michelin-Star level production! Whoa, hold on now. Before you book reservations that would make your wallet grimace, let’s take a closer look at James “the Chef” Cook. While we hope that we’re paying up for an experience curated by Gordon Ramsey himself, maybe we’re actually being bamboozled by the talentless Salt Bae who survives on hype alone. Instead of blindly rushing to the hottest new restaurant in town, we need to take a peek into the kitchen to know what kind of establishment we’re walking into. 

James Cook. I’m still talking about rookie running back for the Buffalo Bills, James Cook. 

What Does Buffalo “Want”

This offseason we saw Buffalo make a strong push for a pass catching running back in J.D. McKissick. Ultimately, McKissick signed back with Washington. Despite the trade falling through,  it proves that the Buffalo front office does in fact want to bolster their run game, specifically the passing game out of the backfield. Of course this is good news for James Cook’s role, as he profiles as that pass catcher for the Bills. 

Ken Dorsey, replacing Brian Daboll as the Bills’ Offensive Coordinator this year, is also good news for James Cook. Ken Dorsey was the Quarterbacks Coach in Buffalo for 2019 and 2020, the exact timeframe that we witnessed Josh Allen transcend from mediocrity to an elite NFL quarterback. Then, In 2021, Dorsey added “Passing Game Coordinator” to his title. But how does this help James Cook? Well, before Dorsey took the reins on the passing game, the Bills had 73 passing attempts to running backs in 2020. Once Dorsey took up the mantle in 2021, we saw that increase to 91 passing attempts to running backs, which is a 24% increase year over year. In short, Ken Dorsey, who is now offensive coordinator, proved he wants to pass to running backs more than they have in recent years. The evidence is clear considering the offseason pursuit of J.D. McKissick and subsequent draft selection of James Cook.

Realistic Outlook for James Cook

Buffalo does not care about Zack Moss, but he’s healthy and cheap, so he will be involved in a limited role. Devin Singletary is still going to be the favored early down back as he proved serviceable, yet not exciting, in 2021. But we can expect his passing work to diminish. James Cook’s best opportunity for success is to absorb as many of the pass attempts the Bills want to give to the backfield, and look explosive enough to take most of Zack Moss’s work on the ground. Here’s a look at the Bills’ running back workload split over the past 2 years: 

I expect James Cook to have the most targets and receptions on the Bills in 2022, and to split some of the rushing workload with Zack Moss. I also expect that early in the 2022 season it will be Zack Moss and not James Cook who relieves Singletary on any early down work. James Cook is talented enough to inspire the coaching staff to give him more work on the ground, and I expect a shift in the first third of the season which then gives Cook priority over Moss in all gameplay scenarios. Simply put, here is roughly how I project the Bills running backs to perform in 2022:

2022 Projections

My 2022 Projections include a 10% increase in pass attempts to running backs as a whole, and the assumption that James Cook will be more efficient with his yardage per target than both Singletary and Moss. I omitted TDs from the projections because they’re often hard to predict, but based on what the Bills running back group produced on average over the past two years, Cook would have about 3 TDs (curse you Josh Allen). This projected stat line would give Cook a Full PPR projected fantasy points total of 137 on the year. Looking back at the 2021 running back leaderboard, that would slot Cook at a finish of RB 38. That puts Cook behind Mike Davis (138.2 fpts) and above J.D. McKissick (127.9 fpts). Not exactly the company we were hoping for!

UH-OH!

I can hear it now, the voices crying out from the hype train, “James Cook was supposed to be the chosen one!” I’ll admit, even I was disappointed with my projection for Cook in 2022. I wanted more. I just can’t seem to find much more work for him in his first year considering Josh Allen’s impact at the goal line, and Singletary taking most of the early down work. Cook’s best shot at blowing my projections away is by proving his talent in the rushing game, and relegating Zack Moss to the bench.

The Truth

The honest truth is that James Cook is likely overvalued due to his landing spot, and he will have to prove himself on the ground to become the fantasy asset the hype would lead you to believe he is. Looking into the future, you have to hope the Bills will not sign a more talented running back than Singletary after he leaves. And Josh Allen’s share of the run game will continue to be a massive limitation on the ceiling of any running back in this offense. Unless we see the Bills begin to limit Allen’s rushing work, especially at the goal line, we can’t expect a high ceiling here. Realistically, we might be looking at the next J.D. McKissick, just in a better offense. After all, that’s exactly what the Bills were chasing this offseason.